WTC Scenarios: What India need to reach World Test Championship final after New Zealand lost to England | Cricket News

The ICC Test mace (Photo Source: X)

With each Test unfolding in the home stretch of the World Test Championship‘s (WTC) 2023-25 cycle, the equation keeps changing in the WTC leaderboard, which at present is headed by India, who face a serious challenge from No. 2 South Africa and third-placed Australia.
New Zealand‘s defeat against England in the first Test at Christchurch may not have changed the top three standings, but it has made the contest for a place in the top two between India, South Africa and Australia more challenging.
The WTC final, which is scheduled for June 2025 at Lord’s, is contested between the teams that finish in the top two of the table at the end of the two-year cycle.
CURRENT WTC STANDINGS (TOP 5)
1. India – Points 110, PCT 61.11
2. South Africa – Points 64, PCT 59.26
3. Australia – Points 90, PCT 57.69
4. New Zealand – Points 72, PCT 50.00
5. Sri Lanka – Points 60, PCT 50.000
(The teams are ranked according to the best PCT, which is decided by Points Percentage System)
WHAT INDIA NEED
It’s well-documented that four outright wins in the ongoing Border Gavaskar Trophy against Australia will fetch India a place in the final irrespective of results in other matches.
But what happens if that doesn’t transpire?
In the scenario of India winning BGT 3-1, Rohit Sharma & Co will stay in the top two unless South Africa win the second Test as well against Sri Lanka. The Proteas had won the first Test by 233 runs to displace Australia from No. 2.
If India win the BGT 3-2, then Sri Lanka must draw one of their two Tests against the Aussies in the series scheduled for January-February next year.
The scenarios get further complicated for India if they draw the BGT 2-2 with Australia. In that case, India would hope that South Africa win their series against Sri Lanka 2-0 and the Lankans must win their series against Australia by at least a 1-0 margin.
If India lose the BGT 2-3, then they would watch the climax of other series even more anxiously, as they would need New Zealand to draw 1-1 with England, South Africa to draw 1-1 against Sri Lanka as well as Pakistan, and the Sri Lanka vs Australia series to end in a 0-0 draw.